Archive for the ‘financial’ Category

Student Loan Bubble – The Lifetime Earnings Myth Part II: College Grads will earn under $732576 more than High School Grads

2009/03/13/1744

Hmmm… I definitely remember hearing this “go to college and you will earn one million dollars more than if you don’t” thing. Well, it shouldn’t surprise anyone, but it looks like that’s just a big lie. Looking at the median income data, it’s more like $730k instead of $1 million, but that $730k isn’t pure profit… it can cost $120k in tuition to start down that path, and then you tack on interest expenses and the risk of loan repayment penalties… you might be closer to $550k… which is still a chunk of change, but it’s a far cry from $1 million.

So, let it be known: median income data suggests you probably won’t earn $1 million extra just by going to college, and paying off the debt is no walk in the park, either…

The actual site has a better version of this graph, but it shows the cumulative lifetime earning difference… and guess what? the little wedge at the top is the “extra.” Booo!!!

student_loan_bubble___median_cumulative_rtfa

RTFA: http://studentloanbubble.com/2009/03/13/the-lifeti…

Next, Student Loan Bubble presents cumulative earnings, and these results might surprise you. By the time workers are 64, college grads will have earned $1,991,574 while high school grads will have earned $1,258,998. These are median figures, which means that 50% of workers will earn less than these amounts. The difference in median lifetime earning is $732,576, which is less than 75% of the fabled $1,000,000.

Struggling to make ends meet – on $500,000

2009/02/10/0630

I just threw up into my mouth, reading this article. Not only are the executives of failed banks earning billions of dollars in bonuses, just as much as the early 2000s, but if their income is capped at $500,000… they might need to consider public schools.

I have only one word for these people: guillotine. It’s either that, or move to another community… or, you know what? Maybe if they’re not willing to earn a measly $500,000 for their disastrous management, someone else is willing to do a better job for less money?

Bankers haven’t done much in recent months to earn sympathy, respect, or trust. By parlaying taxpayer-funded bailouts into bonuses, they have lost all credibility. Not only should they lose their salaries, but they should lose their heads. Again, “guillotine.”

Give up the nanny? Oh noes! Apparently, hot chocolate costs $8.50 when you’re a fucking millionaire. Oh noes! Whatever shall I wear to the gala ball? Here’s a hint: maybe you’ve just been fired, even without realizing it yet, for doing the most damage to our financial system in nearly a century. The gala ball is officially not yours to worry about, anymore.

Save yourselves, leave the armed limo driver behind. I just schadenfreuded all over myself.

RTFA: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/08/fashion/08halfmi…

PRIVATE school: $32,000 a year per student.

Mortgage: $96,000 a year.

Co-op maintenance fee: $96,000 a year.

Nanny: $45,000 a year.

We are already at $269,000, and we haven’t even gotten to taxes yet.

Five hundred thousand dollars – the amount President Obama wants to set as the top pay for banking executives whose firms accept government bailout money – seems like a lot, and it is a lot. To many people in many places, it is a princely sum to live on. But in the neighborhoods of New York City and its suburban enclaves where successful bankers live, half a million a year can go very fast.

“As hard as it is to believe, bankers who are living on the Upper East Side making $2 or $3 million a year have set up a life for themselves in which they are also at zero at the end of the year with credit cards and mortgage bills that are inescapable,” said Holly Peterson, the author of an Upper East Side novel of manners, “The Manny,” and the daughter of Peter G. Peterson, a founder of the equity firm the Blackstone Group. “Five hundred thousand dollars means taking their kids out of private school and selling their home in a fire sale.”

The Great College Hoax, or “how an article in Forbes Magazine made me violently angry”

2009/02/06/0451

This article about the impending collapse of the student loan bubble is a complicated read. It’s not that the subject matter is difficult; it’s that this issue strikes right to the core of my being, and fills me with such emotion that I can hardly contain it.

RTFA: http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/0202/060_2.html

The proportion of students who graduate with more than $40,000 in debt jumped sixfold during that period, to 7.7% of the 1 million grads in 2004, or 77,500 people. Most will struggle for more than a decade to work it off, assuming relatively low 6.8% interest rates, the Project on Student Debt says.

For many, the terms are far worse. A decade ago nearly all student lending was of the low-cost, federally guaranteed variety, most of it with 6% to 8% interest kicking in only after a student left school. As costs outpaced such financing over the past decade, the share of student loans from “private” lenders rose from 7% to 23% of the market, or $20 billion in the 2007–08 academic year.

The rise of private student lending closely paralleled the subprime mortgage boom, which went from 8% of home loan originations in 2003 to 20% in 2006, before the housing meltdown sent that mortgage sector over a cliff. Private student loans resemble subprime mortgages in other ways, too. As banks and brokers did with subprime home loans, colleges and the lenders in cahoots with them commonly market private student loans alongside lower-cost alternatives, blurring the differences.

Let me be specific: reading this article makes me absolutely homicidal. The dystopia of Harrison Bergeron is my life; I live with artificial weights on my brain and lead in my wallet.

Without a doubt, college debt is the single most worrisome burden in my life, and several nights a month, I am awake all night ruminating about how I will pay it back. It’s particularly frustrating to me that I am forced to choose between making capital investments (in tools and goods that will help me earn more) and debt payments, almost 50% of which is interest expense. Over the past 6 years, I have paid more than $7000 in interest alone, and I’ve barely paid down the principle by half a semester worth of tuition.

Maybe this is small potatoes when compared with the dumbass moves pulled by subprime debtors who purchased million-dollar houses, but we’re not talking about “irrational exuberance” and a pool in the backyard. We’re talking about college, and getting crippled for staying in school until you’re 21 years old… the very thing that was considered “responsible” and … even patriotic? After all, how else will the great U. S. of A. stay economically competitive, if not for the masochistic brainiacs who will grow up to work in the cubicle farms of Silicone Valley?

As a legal adult, I was debt-free for a single week of my life, during the brief period of time between my 18th birthday and the beginning of college orientation. Seven days. Seven fucking days. I had a job year-round during all four years of school, in one case working from midnight until 8am switching data backup tapes. During that timeperiod, my grades dropped significantly, which is clearly related to my twisted work patterns. I wore my clothes until they literally fell off my body, I aggressively scavenged or begged for free food at every opportunity, and I went dumpster diving for computer equipment several times a week.

To add insult to injury, my own family ridiculed me for investing in computer hardware instead of clothes and food, but the choice was not mine to make due to the nature of the degrees I was earning. They called me greedy, selfish, and entitled for wanting to talk about how we could restructure my loans based on the family’s home equity. (By the way, my home town didn’t experience a housing bubble, so the equity is intact, even today.) To anyone who wants to diminish my achievement, this pseudonymous blog isn’t the place for expressing my sentiment. The bottom line is that I worked longer and and scavenged harder than most people I know.

By the time I graduated, just over 2.8 years out of a 4-year degree had been paid for, with the remaining debt being enough to purchase a very decent luxury car, all the while accruing interest at rates as high as 8.5%. I distinctly recall the propaganda of the 1990s, which proclaimed that anyone could afford college. While I can’t vouch for the people who claim to be paying 15% and up, I can say that I’ve seen credit cards with lower interest rates, and that’s pretty twisted. If anyone thought purchasing a luxury car with a credit card was a good idea, then they would have no problem accepting the myth that college is affordable. I think that pretty well explains why this country is completely fucked, financially. …the fact that people are doing this to their own kids is downright heartless, almost like wombats eating their own newborn babies…

I can also say that as a result of this big scam, I’ve been forced to learn a lot about finances and accounting, and I’m better off for it. The experience has left me bitter and cynical, psychotically vengeful, and almost single-mindedly focused on this issue. When I stay up all night, thinking about this bullshit, I end up wandering around like a zombie for several days as I get back to a normal sleeping schedule. It’s no stretch to say that this interferes with my life, and that some of the best years of my youth have been pissed away as I frantically tried to work my way out of debt.

Please: let me hear more about bailing out these banks, and the billions-dollar bonuses being paid to Merril Lynch investors. This whole criminal enterprise makes me violently angry. I’m really fucking glad Bush was so aggressive about bankruptcy reform (in 2005), specifically preventing students from restructuring their debt during bankruptcy. Please remind me that I was born into the peasant class, and that I’m doomed to a life of long days and tiring labor. Please do.

…and raving about this problem on some blog is a huge consolation… Fuck! I need to destroy something. ROAR!

Explosion in monetary base means explosion in food costs

2009/02/05/0630

You can’t double the money supply and expect inflation to be limited to financial debt. It shouldn’t be surprising that the price of commodities is skyrocketing, in order to catch up with the devaluation of our currency. Let’s take a quick peek at one indicator that is driving some of the hysteria. If you’re wearing a diaper, then you are fully prepared to witness the following two charts. Otherwise, just move along… this stuff is more than you can handle right now.

First, we see the percentage change in the amount of money in circulation, as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve:

k_adjusted_monetary_base_annual_rat_rtfa

Next, we see the actual dollar amounts in circulation. Sure enough, both of these charts agree: the amount of currency has doubled.

st_louis_5_year_rtfa

Oh sure, our economy has had trillions of fake dollars floating around anyway – that’s part of how our houses came to be so expensive… For the British perspective, we turn to the Financial Times.

RTFA: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/91a0da5e-f08d-11dd-972c-…

Britain’s era of cheap food is gone forever with food prices forecast to remain high over the long term even as commodity prices moderate, according to a report from Chatham House, the London-based think-tank.

Recent declines in wheat and oil prices will not sharply reduce the cost of food because the underlying fundamentals driving food prices higher have not changed, it warns.

Kate Bailey, a senior researcher at Cardiff Business School and one of the co-authors of the report, Food Futures: Rethinking UK Strategy, says: “We will see a return to higher [food] prices.”

Long-term trends that will keep food prices high include: a rising global population that is eating more protein as it becomes more affluent; the food industry’s dependence on expensive energy sources such as oil and natural gas to produce and transport foodstuffs; and global shortages of agricultural land, water and rural labour.

The UK’s rejection of genetically modified crops means it is also dependent on expensive imports of non-GM animal feed when leading agricultural producers such as South America have switched to GM crops.

The report highlighted the UK’s reliance on imports – nearly half the country’s food is imported. This made it vulnerable to global food or commodity shortages caused by poor harvests or disease outbreaks. “The UK can no longer afford to take its food supply for granted . . . a food crisis in the UK is not unthinkable,” the think-tank said.

Next up: food riots in places we didn’t expect.

Global recession – where did all the money go?

2009/02/01/0630

I’ve seen several charts that attempt to digest the nature of this financial conundrum. So you know, watch out for charts that represent a value in terms of the diameter of a circle (i.e. the width of a circle), because our natural tendency is to interpret that circle in terms of its area, not its diameter. Here is an example of a terrible, scare-mongering graphic that makes this misleading error:

bank_equity_rtfa

On the other hand, the Guardian has put together a really decent infographic that breaks the problem down, and they do not torture their charts to make the point. It is scary enough, as is.

RTFA: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/dan-roberts-on-…

Global recession – where did all the money go?

guardian_global_recession_rtfa