Posts Tagged ‘Capital Management’

Even for Stock Market Veterans, It’s Uncharted Territory – NYTimes.com

2009/03/09/0950

RTFA: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/08/your-money/08inv…

Byron Wien, chief investment strategist at Pequot Capital Management, says he is an optimist. Yet he advises small investors to buy gold and corporate bonds, not equities, which, he said, may be too risky right now.

Barton M. Biggs, managing partner at Traxis Partners, a hedge fund, places himself in the optimists’ camp, too. Yet he advises well-to-do investors to arm themselves – with shotguns, if need be – against the possibility of a deepening downturn and accompanying “social unrest.”

Damn, a hedge fund manager is advising clients to arm themselves with shotguns?!

Basel II Accord

2009/01/04/2243

RTFA: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basel_ii

Basel II is the second of the Basel Accords, which are recommendations on banking laws and regulations issued by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. The purpose of Basel II, which was initially published in June 2004, is to create an international standard that banking regulators can use when creating regulations about how much capital banks need to put aside to guard against the types of financial and operational risks banks face. Advocates of Basel II believe that such an international standard can help protect the international financial system from the types of problems that might arise should a major bank or a series of banks collapse. In practice, Basel II attempts to accomplish this by setting up rigorous risk and capital management requirements designed to ensure that a bank holds capital reserves appropriate to the risk the bank exposes itself to through its lending and investment practices. Generally speaking, these rules mean that the greater risk to which the bank is exposed, the greater the amount of capital the bank needs to hold to safeguard its solvency and overall economic stability.

It’s interesting to note the timing of this work. Basel II guidelines were originally published in 2004? It makes one question how much of our current financial crisis had been foreseen.

I was tipped off to Basel II from Michael Lewis and David Einhorn’s great editorial in the New York Times, which had a few suggestions for repairing the US Financial system:

Impose new capital requirements on banks. The new international standard now being adopted by American banks is known in the trade as Basel II. Basel II is premised on the belief that banks do a better job than regulators of measuring their own risks — because the banks have the greater interest in not failing. Back in 2004, the S.E.C. put in place its own version of this standard for investment banks. We know how that turned out. A better idea would be to require banks to hold less capital in bad times and more capital in good times. Now that we have seen how too-big-to-fail financial institutions behave, it is clear that relieving them of stringent requirements is not the way to go.

Another good solution to the too-big-to-fail problem is to break up any institution that becomes too big to fail.

This editorial about “fixing the financial crisis” is a followup to their earlier editorial describing the problem:

In the middle of all this, Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. persuaded Congress that he needed $700 billion to buy distressed assets from banks — telling the senators and representatives that if they didn’t give him the money the stock market would collapse. Once handed the money, he abandoned his promised strategy, and instead of buying assets at market prices, began to overpay for preferred stocks in the banks themselves. Which is to say that he essentially began giving away billions of dollars to Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and a few others unnaturally selected for survival. The stock market fell anyway.

It’s hard to know what Mr. Paulson was thinking as he never really had to explain himself, at least not in public. But the general idea appears to be that if you give the banks capital they will in turn use it to make loans in order to stimulate the economy. Never mind that if you want banks to make smart, prudent loans, you probably shouldn’t give money to bankers who sunk themselves by making a lot of stupid, imprudent ones. If you want banks to re-lend the money, you need to provide them not with preferred stock, which is essentially a loan, but with tangible common equity — so that they might write off their losses, resolve their troubled assets and then begin to make new loans, something they won’t be able to do until they’re confident in their own balance sheets. But as it happened, the banks took the taxpayer money and just sat on it.

Great stuff! …but where does Basel II fit in? The timing truly is strange – what motivated its creation? How early were banks aware of the impending disaster?